The Algorithm · All tiers
149,610 contracts.
Here's what we found.
The complete Smart Score algorithm. 9 factors, real weights, and documented win rates by grade across every market regime from 2016 through 2025.
149,610
Contracts backtested
2016 to 2025
93.1%
A+ win rate
Expired worthless
498
Stocks analyzed
10 market regimes
9
Years of data
Including 2020 + 2022
Grade performance table
A+ wins more AND pays more. The algorithm found the edge.
For the first time in v9, the grades rank exactly as they should. A+ > A > B in both win rate and yield. The algorithm's job is finding maximum income at each risk level, and the data shows it is working.
9-factor breakdown
🔒 Exact weights visible on ProProbability of Profit
Derived from delta. Most important predictor of outcome across all regimes.
Downside Protection
OTM buffer from current price. Rewards meaningful downside cushion.
Theta Decay Efficiency
Rate of decay relative to premium size. Unique to OptionsAnalytx.
IV Rank (52-week)
Normalized IV vs stock's own history. Rewards selling when premium is historically elevated.
OTM% Direct
Strike distance scored directly. 3rd strongest predictor in 149,610-contract backtest.
Event Risk Penalty
Automatic penalty for earnings or ex-dividend dates within DTE.
Raw IV (secondary)
Residual IV signal. Captures volatility premium not fully covered by IV Rank.
Annualized Yield
Normalizes premium across DTE ranges for apples-to-apples comparison.
Liquidity Score
Bid/ask spread and volume/OI. Protects against bad fills.
The stress test that matters
The backtest spans 10 distinct market regimes including the COVID crash and the 2022 bear market. Most covered call strategies underperform in sustained downtrends. The high-quality Smart Score trades held up:
2022 Bear Market
84.3%
A/A+ win rate · SPX -20%
COVID Crash
86.2%
A/A+ win rate · March 2020
All 10 Regimes
89.6%
A/A+ combined · 2016 to 2025
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